Samenvatting

This chapter offers a critical inquiry of the current process of United Nations (UN)-Arab League mediation in the Syrian war, in order to explain the effectiveness and implications of international mediation as a non-kinetic (non-coercive) asset in strategies that address this war. The Syrian war is perceived as a civil war with features of an evolving proxy war, which has in many ways come to define twenty-first century wars. Whereas it is often argued that multilateral mediation in Syria has largely failed at the new fault lines of major-power rivalries, it will be demonstrated here that mediations effectiveness as a non-kinetic strategic means needs to be interpreted in a much broader perspective than the usual dichotomous notions of success or failure may account for. Moreover, the limitations will be shown of traditional concepts in mediation theory that have largely defined the conditions for mediation onset, such as a mutually hurting stalemate and the ripe moment for conflict resolution. The chapter outlines the implications in view of critical scholarship on war and non-linear strategic approaches, involving notions such as uncertainty and unpredictability. By addressing these topics, the study brings various bodies of literature together, problematizes some core concepts and assumptions, identifies consequences, and suggests ways forward in research.