Samenvatting

Residing atop the trophic ladder, the jaguar plays a crucial role in the functioning, stability, and resilience of neotropical forest ecosystems. They influence the entire food web and have wide-ranging effects on various ecological processes. However, jaguars are a highly at-risk and near-threatened species and have been lost over more than half their historical range. The full consequences of their extinction on ecosystems remain unclear due to limited research and complex ecological dynamics. Therefore, there is a pressing need to forecast the implications of their absence as ecosystem drivers for effective conservation planning.Current literature demonstrates that the absence of jaguars can disrupt the intricate interrelationships among species in the ecosystem. They exert top-down influences on their prey and influence co-occurring predators through interspecific competition. The impacts on predator and prey populations depend on factors such as abundance, density, and socio-ecological characteristics but seem the most pronounced in white-lipped peccaries through over-predation and pumas through competition as jaguars have a competitive dominance over them. The direct and indirect effects of jaguar declines on predators, prey, and the environment are interconnected and can lead to mesopredator release, changes in (native and invasive) prey populations, shifts in co-occurring predator diets, increased disease transmissions, alterations in forest composition, and shifts in prey behavior. It is uncertain whether another predator could completely serve as a surrogate for the jaguar's ecological role. The puma is the closest predator to the jaguar and may partially fill its role through niche expansion and density compensation, but differences in diet and physical characteristics limit its ability to fully compensate.Trophic cascades such as increased prey populations, behavioral changes, and alterations in forest composition have been observed in the absence of jaguars. However, the occurrence and extent of these cascades depend on various factors and are still subject to research and debate. The interference of anthropogenic factors further complicates the understanding of jaguar influences as their combined impacts can result in divergent outcomes. Anthropogenic factors contribute to both the decline of jaguars and co-occurring species, also causing alterations in ecosystem functioning. It is therefore recommended to continue the monitoring of crash events and changes in the wider terrestrial vertebrate community in areas where jaguars are currently significantly declining. Future research should continue to investigate the consequences of jaguar decline, considering complex interactions and combined effects of multiple species and human disturbance on ecosystems, narrowing knowledge gaps for conservation planning.